Significant Demand

MassDOT’s East-West Passenger Rail Study veered off track during the Advisory Committee meeting in Springfield on Feb. 6, 2020. The study team’s detailed analysis of each of the six preliminary alternatives combined laughably low ridership estimates with greatly inflated costs for all levels of service.

Advisory Committee and audience members quickly questioned the ridership estimates during the meeting — https://bit.ly/2SiTO8N

Following the meeting Ben Heckscher of Trains In The Valley provided a further corrective to MassDOT’s ridiculous numbers — please see “Advocates Spotlight Strange Math In MassDOT East-West Rail Study” at https://bit.ly/2SANhoW

MassDOT needs to reconsider the lowballed ridership estimates immediately. The project team should start by revisiting a conclusion reached four years ago in its Northern New England Intercity Rail Initiative (NNEIRI): “The ridership analysis revealed significant demand for passenger rail service on the NNEIRI Corridor.” [NNEIRI Inland Route Service Development Plan, June 2016, p. 39]

The NNEIRI studied several alternative services on the Boston to Springfield Corridor, all including a stop in Palmer. NNEIRI Alternative 3 proposed 8 round-trip trains per day, tilt-enabled to reach 90 MPH on restored & upgraded track in the CSX right-of-way. It estimated annual boardings at Palmer to be 10,643 in year 2020.

NNEIRI Alternative 3 estimated that annual boardings at Palmer would rise to 12,192 in year 2035.

It is unfortunate that MassDOT shelved the NNEIRI study in 2016, but it is fortuitous that the NNEIRI now gives the East-West Passenger Rail Study project team a template for statewide service along the extended Boston to Pittsfield corridor currently being studied. MassDOT should start with NNEIRI Alternative 3’s Boston to Springfield Corridor, add a Hilltowns stop in Chester and a Berkshires stop in Pittsfield, and sync the East-West service with CTrail and Valley Flyer trains at Springfield.

In 2016 the NNEIRI study also provided more reasonable cost estimates for appropriate and realistic service alternatives to restore frequent passenger rail service on the Inland Route between Boston and Springfield. There are two cost components:

• 2016 cost ranges for track, bridge, signal and communication infrastructure —

• 2016 cost range for trainsets —

This equals a total price tag for infrastructure and equipment upgrades of $685 – 855 million. Even adjusted for inflation to 2020 dollars, the infrastructure and capital cost to implement NNEIRI Alternative 3 service would be affordable and achievable by comparison with all service levels currently being considered in the East-West Passenger Rail Study.

MassDOT will conclude its study in May. It is now time for MassDOT to utilize the NNEIRI study’s fastest, most frequent service option to inform its current East-West alternatives analysis. NNEIRI Alternative 3 proposed service with 8 round-trip trains per day, traveling at 90 MPH, and requiring less than $1 billion in infrastructure & capital investment. That is exactly the kind of affordable train service which would be most appropriate to connect all residents across Massachusetts, running through its three largest cities, and also serving suburban and rural regions in between.